Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Statistics Prove A Lot


This post originally started out as a comment in response to a comment, but turned into something so long that it might as well be a post. I need content anyway. Like everything else I do, it's basically just a rant, so if you don't like rants and you don't like statistics and you don't like (or hate) Mormonism then you should just go back to looking up porn or "The Best of Craig's List". Do whatever you want, I don't give a shit.

It started in response to the 11th comment to this post, which comment starts off with "Can I just say before we go any further". Here's my response.

Let's for once be honest about how many Mormons there are. This matters because, as you and I both know, many Mormons use the growth of the church as a testament to its truthfulness, and because eventually "the stone cut without hands will take over the Earth", or something like that. Never mind that such a statement, while supposedly scriptural, doesn't even make any sense. Like the words don't have any meaning when put together. It's like saying, "The dog with down under shall fire wood below the canopy." Oh well, there's always the simpler statement, "if it's not true then how do you explain the growth?" My mother has said that to me many times. Her faith is extremely strong and Jesus has rewarded her.

For our purposes today, a Mormon is defined as someone who believes in the differentiating tenets of Mormonism. Belief in Jesus not optional, but belief in the Bible is, since most Mormons have never even read it. Probably a good thing since the Old Testament is mostly a bunch of fairy tales anyway, and the Three Little Pigs is a lot more interesting - and plausible. But the 'real Mormon' by this definition must also generally attend his/her meetings. For argument's sake let's say they must attend at least 51% of all relevant Sunday meetings. Weekday meetings, home teaching meetings, visiting teaching meetings, fireside meetings, correlation meetings, Boy Scout meetings, fast offering collections, tithing settlement, weekly/monthly/yearly temple attendance, all are optional. So, in other words, we're setting the bar pretty low here.

We don't really know how many members there are because the church's leaders, who are mostly well-meaning charlatans or are brainwashed idiots (or both), keep that information secret. All we know is how many people have been baptized. And that number is probably about 12 million. But to avoid arguing, let's say it's 13 million, with 6 million of those in the US and 7 million in other countries.

In the US, the activity rate of baptized Mormons is generally said to be around 50%. You and I both know this is a gross exaggeration, because we've seen the number of people that both believe AND go to meetings. It's not a lot. And you and I both know there are hundreds of thousands that go but don't really believe in the core LDS differentiators. I'd posit to you that the activity rate among the six million baptized Mormons in the US is far less than 30%. But let's say it's 33%, just to be more than fair. That's 2 million people in the US.

Let's do a sanity check on this number: after ~200 years in its home country the church comprises .67% of Americans. Seems about right, since most people East of Colorado and Texas had never even heard of Mormonism before Mitt Romney.

Let's do another sanity check just to be sure. Every two years the church sends out about 50,000 missionaries, so 25k per year, with probably 80%, or 20k of them, from the US. This means that every year 20k out of 2 million people go on missions. That is 1% of the believing population. But 19 year olds probably comprise 3% of the believing population, so why aren't there more missionaries? The reality is that there are probably only one to 1.5m believing active Mormons in the US today. But we'll leave it at two million just to avoid argument.

Now let's go to everywhere else. We're doing that second since as we all know 'everywhere else' is far less important than the US, which is the world's greatest country and its superpower status is evidence that the Lord has blessed it more than any other country, since those other ones are all made up of secular pagans who are worth less in God's eyes, and by the way, none of them have a constitution that was inspired with things like our second amendment, which makes it easier to carry handguns around and therefore kill all those bad black people. Very inspired. It's great to tread upon their sad little lives with our spiritual superiority. After all, God (Adam?) picked Missouri as the Garden of Eden, and that's where his son Jesus Christ will come to when he comes again. All other places just don't cut it.

There are 7 million baptized Mormons outside the US. In every one of those countries, except possibly Canada, the "real Mormon" rate is much lower than in the US. Not a soul on Earth would argue that point. So let's say the real believers outside the US are 15% of those that have actually gotten baptized. Not included on that list are several people I baptized on my mission, who literally never again went to church. Ever. Or the fatherless 8 year-olds that sister missionaries love to "fellowship" by befriending the lonely single moms who just want someone, anyone to take her kids to a church so she can get a few free hours to herself every Sunday, since she "is too busy to go". Those people aren't part of our list of "real Mormons".

So, out of 7 million baptized Mormons outside the US there are, it appears, 1 million who believe and attend. That is almost 15%. Let's run a sanity check on that:

Since I was a missionary for the Mormons, spreading the Words of Jesus and Joseph Smith, I've been a member of local wards in England, France and Hong Kong. In France you have about 30 wards with an average attendance of 100 each (it's really less than that, but with numbers this small why quibble?). Assuming every person that goes also truly believes the Mormon differentiators (which we know isn't true, since I go occasionally and I absolutely know with every fiber of my being that Joseph Smith was a cockmaster). But we'll go with 100%, just so we don't leave anyone out. That's 3000 people out of 60 million, or .0005% of the population. In England let's say there are a hundred wards of a hundred people each. That's 10,000 people in a country of 50 million. or .02% of the population. In Hong Kong the numbers are probably about the same. Let's call it 2000 people in the 20 wards there, so 2000 out of 7 million people, or .3% of the population. Sounds about right.

I've never been to South America but one can assume active "real Mormons" comprise a higher percentage of the population there. Still way way way way way way way way way less than 1% of the population, but probably double that of Europe. So let's say .25% of the population in S. America is comprised of real Mormons. That's 1 in 400. That sounds high, but we'll leave it there.

Now add to this the fact that in China, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Russia, Nigeria, Vietnam, and all other Muslim countries combined (pop 600m), there is basically not one Mormon. In other words, in those countries the population is 3.7 billion, or 60% of the total population of the earth. And there is not one Mormon.

And in the rest of the world - population 3 billion - the active, believing Mormons equal 3 million, or .1% of the population. So I now would like to ask two questions:

  1. Can we agree that there really aren't 13 million Mormons?
  2. Can you work with me to spread the truth to people? Just the truth, nothing else - which is that it turns out the stone cut without hands really isn't filling the earth at all. That in fact it doesn't even come within a country mile of keeping up with population growth?

This leads me to one of five conclusions:

1. God’s plan isn’t working right now for even a measurable minority of the world but it will. Later. Sometime later. We don’t know when, but a lot later. It has to work. We're talking about Jesus here. Have faith and you'll affect the outcome. It’s going to happen. 200 years isn’t long enough, God needs more time. I reject this assertion outright.

2. God’s plan isn’t working because he’s a dumbshit and his plan sucks. Highly unlikely but more plausible than #1. In this case I want a new God who knows how to help people believe. I’m not taking away free will here, I’m just asking for a dude that knows how to motivate people. The one we have now is utterly incompetent.

3. There is in fact a God but he really doesn’t give a shit if people join his “one true” religion, and in that case neither do I. That one makes a little sense given the facts we've just reviewed.

4. Mormon doctrines are untrue and – worse – just plain stupid. That's why almost no one joins the church or - if they do - the vast majority eventually get out.

5. #3 plus there is no god.

What other choice does any rational person have but to lean towards #4 or #5? All but #1 are possible but #5 makes the most sense. I would normally say right here that I ask God to strike me down if I’m wrong. But that tiny part of me says, “Why risk it?” That’s Pascal’s Wager talking. I guess it also means I’m not 100% atheist yet. I’m pretty sure I’ll get there though.

3 comments:

Dave said...

I have a statistic for you Dave - 90% of the participants in a gang rape are having a good time.

I cannot believe I write you this F**king fantastic six word doc page single spaced comment and you hit me with some irrelevant argument about the number of Mormons I had mentioned in the early part of my post. If you read my post it says that each one of the how many ever Mormons there actually are are living and beleiving things in their own way. That is what I said, I said nothing about who was and who wasn't comming to church, who really cares? Don't drag your Mom and her motherly love and prodding into our discussions. You robbed me Dave and responded to my comment by bringing up something your dear Mother says to you that you are obviously not happy with.

What about me Dave, respond to me. Get pissed at something I say. What about all of the Ancient Greece stuff and all of the other good stuff I had in there. You idiot, I hate you for this. You need to acknowledge and praise me for my humor and insights. That is the only reason I even like you or tolerate you. (That and I am waiting for Stasha to leave you so I can make her the first Sister Wife...take that one in nice and slow chump)

Now get back to your computer and give me a proper response you angry little man. What next Dave? You are angry and short (shorter then I am) and you live in France, are you going to cross the river and invade Poland? Germany? On to Waterloo Dave. You angry angry man give me something I can work with here...Statistics, who enjoys that? How about a quote from a true American Badass,

"There are three kinds of lies, Lies, Damn lies, and Statistics."

Mark "American Bad Ass" Twain.

You my friend are barely American, not all that bad, but are surely an Ass. NOW RESPOND TO ME WITH SOMETHING I CAN WORK WITH NOT NUMBERS.

Dave said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
The Dude said...

Perhaps you need to take some Mydol, douchebag. A comment as brilliant as the one you posted deserves its own website, not just to be a comment buried on some shitty blog like this one. The whole world should read it. It also deserves a well-thought out response and I was simply distracted by the task of proving that there really aren't 13 million Mormons. I'm sick of people saying there are.

Now that debate about that issue is over, I shall turn my attention to giving your comment the respect it warrants. I'm working on it. Remember, patience is a virtue.